Forecast

1---2name: forecast3description: Generate a weighted sales forecast with best/likely/worst scenarios, commit vs. upside breakdown, and gap analysis. Use when preparing a quarterly forecast call, assessing gap-to-quota from a pipeline CSV, deciding which deals to commit vs. call upside, or checking pipeline coverage against your number.4argument-hint: "<period>"5---6 7# /forecast8 9> If you see unfamiliar placeholders or need to check which tools are connected, see [CONNECTORS.md](../../CONNECTORS.md).10 11Generate a weighted sales forecast with risk analysis and commit recommendations.12 13## Usage14 15```16/forecast [period]17```18 19Generate a forecast for: $ARGUMENTS20 21If a file is referenced: @$122 23---24 25## How It Works26 27```28┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐29│                        FORECAST                                  │30├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤31│  STANDALONE (always works)                                       │32│  ✓ Upload CSV export from your CRM                              │33│  ✓ Or paste/describe your pipeline deals                        │34│  ✓ Set your quota and timeline                                  │35│  ✓ Get weighted forecast with stage probabilities               │36│  ✓ Risk-adjusted projections (best/likely/worst case)           │37│  ✓ Commit vs. upside breakdown                                  │38│  ✓ Gap analysis and recommendations                             │39├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤40│  SUPERCHARGED (when you connect your tools)                      │41│  + CRM: Pull pipeline automatically, real-time data             │42│  + Historical win rates by stage, segment, deal size            │43│  + Activity signals for risk scoring                            │44│  + Automatic refresh and tracking over time                     │45└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘46```47 48---49 50## What I Need From You51 52### Step 1: Your Pipeline Data53 54**Option A: Upload a CSV**55Export your pipeline from your CRM (e.g. Salesforce, HubSpot). I need at minimum:56- Deal/Opportunity name57- Amount58- Stage59- Close date60 61Helpful if you have:62- Owner (if team forecast)63- Last activity date64- Created date65- Account name66 67**Option B: Paste your deals**68```69Acme Corp - $50K - Negotiation - closes Jan 3170TechStart - $25K - Demo scheduled - closes Feb 1571BigCo - $100K - Discovery - closes Mar 3072```73 74**Option C: Describe your territory**75"I have 8 deals in pipeline totaling $400K. Two are in negotiation ($120K), three in evaluation ($180K), three in discovery ($100K)."76 77### Step 2: Your Targets78 79- **Quota**: What's your number? (e.g., "$500K this quarter")80- **Timeline**: When does the period end? (e.g., "Q1 ends March 31")81- **Already closed**: How much have you already booked this period?82 83---84 85## Output86 87```markdown88# Sales Forecast: [Period]89 90**Generated:** [Date]91**Data Source:** [CSV upload / Manual input / CRM]92 93---94 95## Summary96 97| Metric | Value |98|--------|-------|99| **Quota** | $[X] |100| **Closed to Date** | $[X] ([X]% of quota) |101| **Open Pipeline** | $[X] |102| **Weighted Forecast** | $[X] |103| **Gap to Quota** | $[X] |104| **Coverage Ratio** | [X]x |105 106---107 108## Forecast Scenarios109 110| Scenario | Amount | % of Quota | Assumptions |111|----------|--------|------------|-------------|112| **Best Case** | $[X] | [X]% | All deals close as expected |113| **Likely Case** | $[X] | [X]% | Stage-weighted probabilities |114| **Worst Case** | $[X] | [X]% | Only commit deals close |115 116---117 118## Pipeline by Stage119 120| Stage | # Deals | Total Value | Probability | Weighted Value |121|-------|---------|-------------|-------------|----------------|122| Negotiation | [X] | $[X] | 80% | $[X] |123| Proposal | [X] | $[X] | 60% | $[X] |124| Evaluation | [X] | $[X] | 40% | $[X] |125| Discovery | [X] | $[X] | 20% | $[X] |126| **Total** | [X] | $[X] | — | $[X] |127 128---129 130## Commit vs. Upside131 132### Commit (High Confidence)133Deals you'd stake your forecast on:134 135| Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Why Commit |136|------|--------|-------|------------|------------|137| [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Reason] |138 139**Total Commit:** $[X]140 141### Upside (Lower Confidence)142Deals that could close but have risk:143 144| Deal | Amount | Stage | Close Date | Risk Factor |145|------|--------|-------|------------|-------------|146| [Deal] | $[X] | [Stage] | [Date] | [Risk] |147 148**Total Upside:** $[X]149 150---151 152## Risk Flags153 154| Deal | Amount | Risk | Recommendation |155|------|--------|------|----------------|156| [Deal] | $[X] | Close date passed | Update close date or move to lost |157| [Deal] | $[X] | No activity in 14+ days | Re-engage or downgrade stage |158| [Deal] | $[X] | Close date this week, still in discovery | Unlikely to close — push out |159 160---161 162## Gap Analysis163 164**To hit quota, you need:** $[X] more165 166**Options to close the gap:**1671. **Accelerate [Deal]** — Currently [stage], worth $[X]. If you can close by [date], you're at [X]% of quota.1682. **Revive [Stalled Deal]** — Last active [date]. Worth $[X]. Reach out to [contact].1693. **New pipeline needed** — You need $[X] in new opportunities at [X]x coverage to be safe.170 171---172 173## Recommendations174 1751. [ ] [Specific action for highest-impact deal]1762. [ ] [Action for at-risk deal]1773. [ ] [Pipeline generation recommendation if gap exists]178```179 180---181 182## Stage Probabilities (Default)183 184If you don't provide custom probabilities, I'll use:185 186| Stage | Default Probability |187|-------|---------------------|188| Closed Won | 100% |189| Negotiation / Contract | 80% |190| Proposal / Quote | 60% |191| Evaluation / Demo | 40% |192| Discovery / Qualification | 20% |193| Prospecting / Lead | 10% |194 195Tell me if your stages or probabilities are different.196 197---198 199## If CRM Connected200 201- I'll pull your pipeline automatically202- Use your actual historical win rates203- Factor in activity recency for risk scoring204- Track forecast changes over time205- Compare to previous forecasts206 207---208 209## Tips210 2111. **Be honest about commit** — Only commit deals you'd bet on. Upside is for everything else.2122. **Update close dates** — Stale close dates kill forecast accuracy. Push out deals that won't close in time.2133. **Coverage matters** — 3x pipeline coverage is healthy. Below 2x is risky.2144. **Activity = signal** — Deals with no recent activity are at higher risk than stage suggests.