PaperclipOrg
Claude Agent Skill · by Deanpeters

Finance Based Pricing Advisor

Install Finance Based Pricing Advisor skill for Claude Code from deanpeters/product-manager-skills.

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Terminal · npx
$npx skills add https://github.com/sugarforever/01coder-agent-skills --skill china-stock-analysis
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How Finance Based Pricing Advisor fits into a Paperclip company.

Finance Based Pricing Advisor drops into any Paperclip agent that handles this kind of work. Assign it to a specialist inside a pre-configured PaperclipOrg company and the skill becomes available on every heartbeat — no prompt engineering, no tool wiring.

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SKILL.md763 lines
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---name: finance-based-pricing-advisordescription: Evaluate pricing changes using ARPU, conversion, churn risk, NRR, and payback. Use when deciding whether a pricing move should ship.intent: >-  Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.type: interactivebest_for:  - "Evaluating price increases, discounts, or new packaging"  - "Estimating churn and conversion risk before a pricing change"  - "Making a go/no-go call on monetization changes"scenarios:  - "Should we raise prices 15% for new customers next quarter?"  - "Evaluate a new premium tier for our SaaS product"  - "Help me assess whether an annual discount will improve revenue"---  ## Purpose Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment. **What this is:** Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering. **What this is NOT:** Comprehensive pricing strategy design, value-based pricing frameworks, willingness-to-pay research, competitive positioning, psychological pricing, packaging architecture, or monetization model selection. For those topics, see the future `pricing-strategy-suite` skills. This skill assumes you have a specific pricing change in mind and need to evaluate its financial viability. ## Key Concepts ### The Pricing Impact Framework A systematic approach to evaluate pricing changes financially: 1. **Revenue Impact** — How does this change ARPU/ARPA?   - Direct revenue lift from price increase   - Revenue loss from reduced conversion or increased churn   - Net revenue impact 2. **Conversion Impact** — How does this affect trial-to-paid or sales conversion?   - Higher prices may reduce conversion rate   - Better packaging may improve conversion   - Test assumptions 3. **Churn Risk** — Will existing customers leave due to price change?   - Grandfathering strategy (protect existing customers)   - Churn risk by segment (SMB vs. enterprise)   - Churn elasticity (how sensitive are customers to price?) 4. **Expansion Impact** — Does this create or block expansion opportunities?   - New premium tier = upsell path   - Usage-based pricing = expansion as customers grow   - Add-ons = cross-sell opportunities 5. **CAC Payback Impact** — Does pricing change affect unit economics?   - Higher ARPU = faster payback   - Lower conversion = higher effective CAC   - Net effect on LTV:CAC ratio ### Pricing Change Types **Direct monetization changes:**- Price increase (raise prices for all customers or new customers only)- New premium tier (create upsell path)- Paid add-on (monetize previously free feature)- Usage-based pricing (charge for consumption) **Discount strategies:**- Annual prepay discount (improve cash flow)- Volume discounts (larger deals)- Promotional pricing (temporary price reduction) **Packaging changes:**- Feature bundling (combine features into tiers)- Unbundling (separate features into add-ons)- Pricing metric change (seats → usage, or vice versa) ### Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT) - **Not value-based pricing:** This evaluates a proposed change, not "what should we charge?"- **Not WTP research:** This analyzes impact, not "what will customers pay?"- **Not competitive positioning:** This is financial analysis, not market positioning- **Not packaging architecture:** This evaluates one change, not redesigning all tiers ### When to Use This Framework **Use this when:**- You have a specific pricing change to evaluate (e.g., "Should we raise prices 20%?")- You need to quantify revenue, churn, and conversion trade-offs- You're deciding between pricing change options (test A vs. B)- You need to present pricing change impact to leadership or board **Don't use this when:**- You're designing pricing strategy from scratch (use value-based pricing frameworks)- You haven't validated willingness-to-pay (do customer research first)- You don't have baseline metrics (ARPU, churn, conversion rates)- Change is too small to matter (<5% price change, <10% of customers affected) --- ### Facilitation Source of Truth Use [`workshop-facilitation`](../workshop-facilitation/SKILL.md) as the default interaction protocol for this skill. It defines:- session heads-up + entry mode (Guided, Context dump, Best guess)- one-question turns with plain-language prompts- progress labels (for example, Context Qx/8 and Scoring Qx/5)- interruption handling and pause/resume behavior- numbered recommendations at decision points- quick-select numbered response options for regular questions (include `Other (specify)` when useful) This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's domain logic. ## Application This interactive skill asks **up to 4 adaptive questions**, offering **3-5 enumerated options** at decision points. --- ### Step 0: Gather Context **Agent asks:** "Let's evaluate the financial impact of your pricing change. Please provide: **Current pricing:**- Current ARPU or ARPA- Current pricing tiers (if applicable)- Current monthly churn rate- Current trial-to-paid conversion rate (if relevant) **Proposed pricing change:**- What change are you considering? (price increase, new tier, add-on, etc.)- New pricing (if known)- Affected customer segment (all, new only, specific tier) **Business context:**- Total customers (or MRR/ARR)- CAC (to assess payback impact)- NRR (to assess expansion context) You can provide estimates if you don't have exact numbers." --- ### Step 1: Identify Pricing Change Type **Agent asks:** "What type of pricing change are you considering? 1. **Price increase** — Raise prices for new customers, existing customers, or both2. **New premium tier** — Add higher-priced tier with additional features3. **Paid add-on** — Monetize a new or existing feature separately4. **Usage-based pricing** — Charge for consumption (seats, API calls, storage, etc.)5. **Discount strategy** — Annual prepay discount, volume pricing, or promotional pricing6. **Packaging change** — Rebundle features, change pricing metric, or tier restructure Choose a number, or describe your specific pricing change." **Based on selection, agent adapts questions:** --- #### If Option 1 (Price Increase): **Agent asks:** "**Price increase details:** - Current price: $___- New price: $___- Increase: ___% **Who is affected?**1. New customers only (grandfather existing)2. All customers (existing + new)3. Specific segment (e.g., SMB only, new plan only) **When would this take effect?**- Immediately- Next billing cycle- Gradual rollout (test first)" --- #### If Option 2 (New Premium Tier): **Agent asks:** "**Premium tier details:** - Current top tier price: $___- New premium tier price: $___- Key features in premium tier: [list] **Expected adoption:**- What % of current customers might upgrade? ___%- What % of new customers might choose premium? ___% **Cannibalization risk:**- Will premium tier cannibalize current top tier?" --- #### If Option 3 (Paid Add-On): **Agent asks:** "**Add-on details:** - Add-on name: ___- Price: $___ /month or /user- Currently free or new feature? **Expected adoption:**- What % of customers would pay for this? ___%- Is this feature currently used (if free)?- Will making it paid hurt retention?" --- #### If Option 4 (Usage-Based Pricing): **Agent asks:** "**Usage pricing details:** - Usage metric: (seats, API calls, storage, transactions, etc.)- Pricing: $___ per [unit]- Free tier or minimum? (e.g., first 1,000 API calls free) **Expected impact:**- Average customer usage: ___ units/month- Expected ARPU change: $current → $new **Expansion potential:**- As customers grow usage, will ARPU increase?" --- #### If Option 5 (Discount Strategy): **Agent asks:** "**Discount details:** - Discount type: (annual prepay, volume, promotional)- Discount amount: ___% off- Duration: (ongoing, limited time) **Trade-off:**- Lower price vs. improved cash flow (annual prepay)- Lower price vs. larger deal size (volume)- Lower price vs. urgency (promotional)" --- #### If Option 6 (Packaging Change): **Agent asks:** "**Packaging change details:** - What are you changing? (bundling, unbundling, pricing metric)- Current packaging: [describe]- New packaging: [describe] **Expected impact:**- ARPU change: $current → $new- Conversion change: ___% → ___%- Churn risk: (low, medium, high)" --- ### Step 2: Assess Expected Impact **Agent asks:** "Now let's quantify the impact. Based on your pricing change, estimate: **Revenue impact:**- Current ARPU: $___- Expected new ARPU: $___- ARPU lift: ___% **Conversion impact:**- Current conversion rate: ___%- Expected new conversion rate: ___%- Conversion change: [increase / decrease / no change] **Churn risk:**- Current monthly churn: ___%- Expected churn after change: ___%- Churn risk: [low / medium / high] **Expansion impact:**- Does this create expansion opportunities? (new tier to upgrade to, usage growth)- Expected NRR change: ___% → ___% You can provide estimates. We'll model scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic)." --- ### Step 3: Evaluate Current State **Agent asks:** "To assess whether this pricing change makes sense, I need your current baseline: **Current metrics:**- MRR or ARR: $___- Number of customers: ___- ARPU/ARPA: $___- Monthly churn rate: ___%- NRR: ___%- CAC: $___- LTV: $___ **Growth context:**- Current growth rate: ___% MoM or YoY- Target growth rate: ___% **Competitive context:**- Are you priced below, at, or above market?- Competitive pressure: (low, medium, high)" --- ### Step 4: Deliver Recommendations **Agent synthesizes:**- Revenue impact (ARPU lift × customer base)- Conversion impact (new customers affected)- Churn impact (existing customers affected)- Net revenue impact- CAC payback impact- Risk assessment **Agent offers 3-4 recommendations:** --- #### Recommendation Pattern 1: Implement Broadly **When:**- Net revenue impact clearly positive (>10% ARPU lift, <5% churn risk)- Minimal conversion impact- Strong value justification **Recommendation:** "**Implement this pricing change** — Strong financial case **Revenue Impact:**- Current MRR: $___- ARPU lift: ___% ($current → $new)- Expected MRR increase: +$___/month (+___%) **Churn Risk: Low**- Expected churn increase: ___% → ___% (+___% points)- Churn-driven MRR loss: -$___/month- **Net MRR impact: +$___/month** ✅ **Conversion Impact:**- Current conversion: ___%- Expected conversion: ___% (___% change)- Impact on new customer acquisition: [minimal / manageable] **CAC Payback Impact:**- Current payback: ___ months- New payback: ___ months (faster due to higher ARPU) **Why this works:**[Specific reasoning based on numbers] **How to implement:**1. **Grandfather existing customers** (if raising prices)   - Protect current base from churn   - New pricing for new customers only2. **Communicate value**   - Emphasize features, outcomes, ROI   - Justify price with value delivered3. **Monitor metrics (first 30-60 days)**   - Conversion rate (should stay within ___%)   - Churn rate (should stay <___%)   - Customer feedback **Expected timeline:**- Month 1: +$___ MRR from new customers- Month 3: +$___ MRR (cumulative)- Month 6: +$___ MRR- Year 1: +$___ ARR **Success criteria:**- Conversion rate stays >___%- Churn rate stays <___%- NRR improves to >___%" --- #### Recommendation Pattern 2: Test First (A/B Test) **When:**- Uncertain impact (wide range between conservative and optimistic)- Moderate churn or conversion risk- Large customer base (can test with subset) **Recommendation:** "**Test with a segment before broad rollout** — Impact is uncertain **Why test:**- ARPU lift estimate: ___% (wide confidence interval)- Churn risk: Medium (___% → ___%)- Conversion impact: Uncertain (___% → ___% estimated) **Test design:** **Cohort A (Control):**- Current pricing: $___- Size: ___% of new customers (or ___ customers) **Cohort B (Test):**- New pricing: $___- Size: ___% of new customers (or ___ customers) **Duration:** 60-90 days (need statistical significance) **Metrics to track:**- Conversion rate (A vs. B)- ARPU (A vs. B)- 30-day retention (A vs. B)- 90-day churn (A vs. B)- NRR (A vs. B) **Decision criteria:** **Roll out broadly if:**- Conversion rate (B) >___% of control (A)- Churn rate (B) <___% higher than control- Net revenue (B) >___% higher than control **Don't roll out if:**- Conversion drops >___%- Churn increases >___%- Net revenue impact negative **Expected timeline:**- Week 1-2: Launch test- Week 8-12: Enough data for statistical significance- Month 3: Decision to roll out or kill **Risk:** Medium. Test mitigates risk before broad rollout." --- #### Recommendation Pattern 3: Modify Approach **When:**- Original proposal has significant risk- Better alternative exists- Need to adjust pricing change to improve outcomes **Recommendation:** "**Modify your approach** — Original proposal has risks **Original Proposal:**- [Price increase / New tier / Add-on / etc.]- Expected ARPU lift: ___%- Churn risk: High (___% → ___%)- Net revenue impact: Uncertain or negative **Problem:**[Specific issue: e.g., "20% price increase will likely cause 10% churn, wiping out revenue gains"] **Alternative Approach:** **Option 1: Smaller price increase**- Instead of ___% increase, try ___%- Lower churn risk (___% vs. ___%)- Still positive net revenue: +$___/month **Option 2: Grandfather existing, raise for new only**- Protect current base (zero churn risk)- Higher prices for new customers only- Gradual ARPU improvement over time **Option 3: Value-based pricing (charge more for high-value segments)**- Keep SMB pricing flat- Raise enterprise pricing ___%- Lower churn risk (enterprise is stickier) **Recommended:**[Specific option with reasoning] **Why this is better:**- Lower churn risk- Comparable revenue upside- Easier to communicate **How to implement:**[Specific steps for alternative approach]" --- #### Recommendation Pattern 4: Don't Change Pricing **When:**- Net revenue impact negative or marginal- High churn risk without offsetting gains- Competitive or strategic reasons to hold pricing **Recommendation:** "**Don't change pricing** — Risks outweigh benefits **Why:**- Expected revenue lift: +$___/month (___%)- Expected churn impact: -$___/month (___%)- **Net revenue impact: -$___/month** 🚨 or marginal **Problem:**[Specific issue: e.g., "Churn-driven revenue loss exceeds price increase gains"] **What would need to change:** **For price increase to work:**- Churn rate must stay below ___% (currently ___%)- OR conversion rate must stay above ___% (currently ___%)- OR you need to reduce CAC to offset lower conversion **Alternative strategies:** **Instead of raising prices:**1. **Improve retention** — Reduce churn from ___% to ___% (same revenue impact as price increase, lower risk)2. **Expand within base** — Increase NRR from ___% to ___% via upsells3. **Reduce CAC** — More efficient acquisition (better than pricing) **When to revisit pricing:**- After improving retention (churn <___%)- After validating willingness-to-pay (WTP research)- After competitive landscape changes **Decision:** Hold pricing for now, focus on [retention / expansion / acquisition efficiency]." --- ### Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis (Optional) **Agent offers:** "Want to see what-if scenarios? 1. **Optimistic case** — Higher ARPU lift, lower churn2. **Pessimistic case** — Lower ARPU lift, higher churn3. **Breakeven analysis** — What churn rate makes this neutral? Or ask any follow-up questions." **Agent can provide:**- Scenario modeling (optimistic/pessimistic/breakeven)- Sensitivity tables (if churn is X%, revenue impact is Y)- Comparison to alternative pricing strategies --- ## Examples See `examples/` folder for sample conversation flows. Mini examples below: ### Example 1: Price Increase (Good Case) **Scenario:** 20% price increase for new customers only **Current state:**- ARPU: $100/month- Customers: 1,000- MRR: $100K- Churn: 3%/month- New customers/month: 50 **Proposed change:**- New customer pricing: $120/month (+20%)- Existing customers: Grandfathered at $100 **Impact:**- New customer ARPU: $120 (+20%)- Churn risk: Low (existing protected)- Conversion impact: Minimal (<5% drop estimated) **Recommendation:** Implement. Net revenue impact +$12K/year with low risk. --- ### Example 2: Price Increase (Risky) **Scenario:** 30% price increase for all customers **Current state:**- ARPU: $50/month- Customers: 5,000- MRR: $250K- Churn: 5%/month (already high) **Proposed change:**- All customers: $65/month (+30%) **Impact:**- ARPU lift: +30% = +$75K MRR- Churn risk: High (5% → 8% estimated)- Churn-driven loss: 3% × 5,000 × $65 = -$9.75K MRR/month **Net impact:** +$75K - $9.75K = +$65K MRR (but accelerating churn problem) **Recommendation:** Don't change. Fix retention first (reduce 5% churn), then raise prices. --- ### Example 3: New Premium Tier **Scenario:** Add $500/month premium tier **Current state:**- Top tier: $200/month (500 customers)- ARPA: $200 **Proposed change:**- New tier: $500/month with advanced features- Expected adoption: 10% of current top tier (50 customers) **Impact:**- Upsell revenue: 50 × ($500 - $200) = +$15K MRR- Cannibalization risk: Low (features justify premium)- NRR impact: Increases from 105% to 110% **Recommendation:** Implement. Creates expansion path, minimal cannibalization risk. --- ## Common Pitfalls ### Pitfall 1: Ignoring Churn Impact**Symptom:** "We'll raise prices 30% and make $X more!" (no churn modeling) **Consequence:** Churn wipes out revenue gains. Net impact negative. **Fix:** Model churn scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic). Factor churn-driven revenue loss into net impact. --- ### Pitfall 2: Not Grandfathering Existing Customers**Symptom:** "We're raising prices for everyone effective immediately" **Consequence:** Massive churn spike from existing customers who feel betrayed. **Fix:** Grandfather existing customers. Raise prices for new customers only. --- ### Pitfall 3: Testing Without Statistical Power**Symptom:** "We tested on 10 customers and it worked!" **Consequence:** 10 customers isn't statistically significant. Results are noise. **Fix:** Test with large enough sample (100+ customers per cohort) for 60-90 days. --- ### Pitfall 4: Pricing Changes Without Value Justification**Symptom:** "We're raising prices because we need more revenue" **Consequence:** Customers see price increase without corresponding value increase. Churn. **Fix:** Tie price increases to value improvements (new features, better support, outcomes delivered). --- ### Pitfall 5: Ignoring CAC Payback Impact**Symptom:** "Higher ARPU is always better!" **Consequence:** If conversion drops 30%, effective CAC increases dramatically. Payback period explodes. **Fix:** Calculate CAC payback impact. Higher ARPU with lower conversion might make payback worse, not better. --- ### Pitfall 6: Annual Discounts That Hurt Margin**Symptom:** "30% discount for annual prepay!" (improves cash but destroys LTV) **Consequence:** Customers lock in low prices for a year. Revenue per customer decreases. **Fix:** Limit annual discounts to 10-15%. Balance cash flow improvement with LTV protection. --- ### Pitfall 7: Copycat Pricing (Competitor-Based)**Symptom:** "Competitor raised prices, so should we" **Consequence:** Your customers, value prop, and cost structure are different. What works for them may not work for you. **Fix:** Use competitors as data points, not decisions. Make pricing decisions based on your unit economics. --- ### Pitfall 8: Premature Optimization**Symptom:** "Let's A/B test 47 different price points!" **Consequence:** Analysis paralysis. Spending months on 5% pricing optimizations while missing 50% growth opportunities elsewhere. **Fix:** Big pricing changes (tiers, packaging, add-ons) matter more than micro-optimizations. Start there. --- ### Pitfall 9: Forgetting Expansion Revenue**Symptom:** "We're maximizing ARPU at acquisition" **Consequence:** High upfront pricing prevents landing customers. Miss expansion opportunities. **Fix:** Consider "land and expand" strategy. Lower entry price, higher expansion revenue via upsells. --- ### Pitfall 10: No Pricing Change Communication Plan**Symptom:** "We're raising prices next month" (no customer communication) **Consequence:** Surprised customers churn. Poor reviews. Reputation damage. **Fix:** Communicate pricing changes 30-60 days in advance. Emphasize value, not just price. --- ## References ### Related Skills- `saas-revenue-growth-metrics` — ARPU, ARPA, churn, NRR metrics used in pricing analysis- `saas-economics-efficiency-metrics` — CAC payback impact of pricing changes- `finance-metrics-quickref` — Quick lookup for pricing-related formulas- `feature-investment-advisor` — Evaluates whether to build features that enable pricing changes- `business-health-diagnostic` — Broader business context for pricing decisions ### External Frameworks (Comprehensive Pricing Strategy)These are OUTSIDE the scope of this skill but relevant for broader pricing work: - **Value-Based Pricing** — Price based on value delivered, not cost- **Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity** — WTP research methodology- **Conjoint Analysis** — Feature-to-price trade-off research- **Good-Better-Best Packaging** — Tier architecture design- **Price Anchoring & Decoy Pricing** — Psychological pricing tactics- **Patrick Campbell (ProfitWell):** Pricing research and benchmarks ### Future Skills (Comprehensive Pricing)For topics NOT covered here, see future `pricing-strategy-suite`:- `value-based-pricing-framework` — How to price based on value- `willingness-to-pay-research` — WTP research methods- `packaging-architecture-advisor` — Tier and bundle design- `pricing-psychology-guide` — Anchoring, decoys, framing- `monetization-model-advisor` — Seat-based vs. usage vs. outcome pricing ### Provenance- Adapted from `research/finance/Finance_For_PMs.Putting_It_Together_Synthesis.md` (Decision Framework #3)- Pricing scenarios from `research/finance/Finance for Product Managers.md`