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npx skills add https://github.com/agentmc15/polymarket-trader --skill trading-strategiesWorks with Paperclip
How Trading Strategies fits into a Paperclip company.
Trading Strategies drops into any Paperclip agent that handles this kind of work. Assign it to a specialist inside a pre-configured PaperclipOrg company and the skill becomes available on every heartbeat — no prompt engineering, no tool wiring.
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Pre-configured AI company — 18 agents, 18 skills, one-time purchase.
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SKILL.md426 linesExpandCollapse
---name: trading-strategiesdescription: Framework for developing, testing, and deploying trading strategies for prediction markets. Use when creating new strategies, implementing signals, or building backtesting logic.--- # Trading Strategy Development Skill ## Strategy Base Class ```pythonfrom abc import ABC, abstractmethodfrom dataclasses import dataclassfrom typing import Optionalfrom datetime import datetimefrom enum import Enum class SignalType(Enum): BUY = "buy" SELL = "sell" HOLD = "hold" @dataclassclass Signal: type: SignalType token_id: str price: float size: float confidence: float # 0-1 timestamp: datetime metadata: dict = None @dataclassclass MarketState: token_id: str yes_price: float no_price: float volume_24h: float open_interest: float orderbook: dict recent_trades: list timestamp: datetime class BaseStrategy(ABC): """Base class for all trading strategies.""" def __init__(self, config: dict): self.config = config self.positions = {} self.signals_history = [] @abstractmethod async def analyze(self, market: MarketState) -> Optional[Signal]: """Analyze market and generate signal.""" pass @abstractmethod def calculate_position_size( self, signal: Signal, portfolio_value: float ) -> float: """Calculate appropriate position size.""" pass def should_execute(self, signal: Signal) -> bool: """Determine if signal should be executed.""" return signal.confidence >= self.config.get("min_confidence", 0.6)``` ## Strategy Types ### 1. Arbitrage Strategy```pythonclass ArbitrageStrategy(BaseStrategy): """Detect and exploit pricing inefficiencies.""" async def find_opportunities( self, markets: list[MarketState] ) -> list[Signal]: opportunities = [] # Check YES + NO > 1 (overpriced) for market in markets: total = market.yes_price + market.no_price if total > 1.02: # 2% threshold opportunities.append( self._create_arb_signal(market, "overpriced", total) ) # Check related markets opportunities.extend( await self._find_related_arbs(markets) ) return opportunities async def analyze(self, market: MarketState) -> Optional[Signal]: total = market.yes_price + market.no_price # Overpriced market (YES + NO > 1) if total > 1.0 + self.config.get("arb_threshold", 0.02): profit_pct = (total - 1.0) * 100 return Signal( type=SignalType.SELL, token_id=market.token_id, price=total, size=self.config.get("default_size", 100), confidence=min(profit_pct / 10, 1.0), timestamp=datetime.utcnow(), metadata={"arb_type": "overpriced", "profit_pct": profit_pct} ) return None``` ### 2. Copy Trading Strategy```pythonclass CopyTradingStrategy(BaseStrategy): """Mirror trades of successful traders.""" def __init__(self, config: dict): super().__init__(config) self.tracked_traders = config.get("tracked_traders", []) self.trade_delay = config.get("delay_seconds", 30) self.size_multiplier = config.get("size_multiplier", 0.5) async def process_trader_activity( self, trader_address: str, trade: dict ) -> Optional[Signal]: """Generate signal based on tracked trader activity.""" if trader_address not in self.tracked_traders: return None trader_score = await self._get_trader_score(trader_address) return Signal( type=SignalType.BUY if trade["side"] == "BUY" else SignalType.SELL, token_id=trade["token_id"], price=trade["price"], size=self._scale_size(trade["size"], trader_score), confidence=trader_score, timestamp=datetime.utcnow(), metadata={ "source_trader": trader_address, "original_size": trade["size"] } ) def _scale_size(self, original_size: float, score: float) -> float: """Scale position size based on trader confidence.""" return original_size * self.size_multiplier * score``` ### 3. Momentum Strategy```pythonclass MomentumStrategy(BaseStrategy): """Trade based on price momentum and volume.""" async def analyze(self, market: MarketState) -> Optional[Signal]: # Calculate momentum indicators price_change = self._calculate_price_change(market, hours=4) volume_ratio = self._calculate_volume_ratio(market) orderbook_imbalance = self._calculate_imbalance(market.orderbook) score = ( price_change * 0.4 + volume_ratio * 0.3 + orderbook_imbalance * 0.3 ) if score > self.config.get("buy_threshold", 0.3): return Signal( type=SignalType.BUY, token_id=market.token_id, price=market.yes_price, size=self.calculate_position_size(score, 10000), confidence=min(abs(score), 1.0), timestamp=datetime.utcnow(), metadata={ "price_change": price_change, "volume_ratio": volume_ratio, "imbalance": orderbook_imbalance } ) elif score < self.config.get("sell_threshold", -0.3): return Signal( type=SignalType.SELL, token_id=market.token_id, price=market.yes_price, size=self.calculate_position_size(score, 10000), confidence=min(abs(score), 1.0), timestamp=datetime.utcnow() ) return None def _calculate_imbalance(self, orderbook: dict) -> float: """Calculate bid/ask imbalance.""" total_bids = sum(b["size"] for b in orderbook.get("bids", [])[:5]) total_asks = sum(a["size"] for a in orderbook.get("asks", [])[:5]) if total_bids + total_asks == 0: return 0 return (total_bids - total_asks) / (total_bids + total_asks)``` ### 4. Mean Reversion Strategy```pythonclass MeanReversionStrategy(BaseStrategy): """Trade reversals from price extremes.""" def __init__(self, config: dict): super().__init__(config) self.lookback_hours = config.get("lookback_hours", 24) self.std_threshold = config.get("std_threshold", 2.0) async def analyze(self, market: MarketState) -> Optional[Signal]: historical_prices = await self._get_historical_prices( market.token_id, hours=self.lookback_hours ) mean_price = sum(historical_prices) / len(historical_prices) std_dev = self._calculate_std(historical_prices, mean_price) current_price = market.yes_price z_score = (current_price - mean_price) / std_dev if std_dev > 0 else 0 # Price significantly below mean - BUY if z_score < -self.std_threshold: return Signal( type=SignalType.BUY, token_id=market.token_id, price=current_price, size=self.config.get("default_size", 100), confidence=min(abs(z_score) / 3, 1.0), timestamp=datetime.utcnow(), metadata={"z_score": z_score, "mean": mean_price} ) # Price significantly above mean - SELL elif z_score > self.std_threshold: return Signal( type=SignalType.SELL, token_id=market.token_id, price=current_price, size=self.config.get("default_size", 100), confidence=min(abs(z_score) / 3, 1.0), timestamp=datetime.utcnow(), metadata={"z_score": z_score, "mean": mean_price} ) return None``` ## Backtesting Framework ```python@dataclassclass BacktestResult: strategy_name: str start_date: datetime end_date: datetime initial_capital: float final_value: float total_return: float sharpe_ratio: float max_drawdown: float win_rate: float total_trades: int trades: list[dict] equity_curve: list[float] class Backtester: def __init__( self, strategy: BaseStrategy, initial_capital: float = 10000, fee_rate: float = 0.01 ): self.strategy = strategy self.initial_capital = initial_capital self.fee_rate = fee_rate async def run( self, historical_data: list[MarketState], start_date: datetime, end_date: datetime ) -> BacktestResult: """Run backtest over historical data.""" portfolio_value = self.initial_capital cash = self.initial_capital positions = {} equity_curve = [portfolio_value] trades = [] for market_state in historical_data: if market_state.timestamp < start_date: continue if market_state.timestamp > end_date: break signal = await self.strategy.analyze(market_state) if signal and self.strategy.should_execute(signal): trade_result = self._simulate_trade( signal, cash, positions, market_state ) if trade_result: trades.append(trade_result) cash = trade_result["remaining_cash"] positions = trade_result["positions"] # Update portfolio value portfolio_value = cash + self._calculate_positions_value( positions, market_state ) equity_curve.append(portfolio_value) return self._calculate_metrics( trades, equity_curve, start_date, end_date ) def _calculate_metrics( self, trades: list, equity_curve: list, start_date: datetime, end_date: datetime ) -> BacktestResult: """Calculate performance metrics.""" returns = [ (equity_curve[i] - equity_curve[i-1]) / equity_curve[i-1] for i in range(1, len(equity_curve)) if equity_curve[i-1] > 0 ] avg_return = sum(returns) / len(returns) if returns else 0 std_return = self._calculate_std(returns, avg_return) if returns else 0 sharpe = (avg_return * 252**0.5) / std_return if std_return > 0 else 0 # Max drawdown peak = equity_curve[0] max_dd = 0 for value in equity_curve: peak = max(peak, value) dd = (peak - value) / peak max_dd = max(max_dd, dd) winning_trades = [t for t in trades if t.get("pnl", 0) > 0] return BacktestResult( strategy_name=self.strategy.__class__.__name__, start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, initial_capital=self.initial_capital, final_value=equity_curve[-1], total_return=(equity_curve[-1] - self.initial_capital) / self.initial_capital, sharpe_ratio=sharpe, max_drawdown=max_dd, win_rate=len(winning_trades) / len(trades) if trades else 0, total_trades=len(trades), trades=trades, equity_curve=equity_curve )``` ## Risk Management ```pythonclass RiskManager: def __init__(self, config: dict): self.max_position_pct = config.get("max_position_pct", 0.1) self.max_drawdown_pct = config.get("max_drawdown_pct", 0.2) self.daily_loss_limit = config.get("daily_loss_limit", 0.05) self.max_correlation = config.get("max_correlation", 0.7) def validate_signal( self, signal: Signal, portfolio: dict ) -> tuple[bool, str]: """Validate signal against risk parameters.""" # Check position concentration position_value = signal.price * signal.size if position_value > portfolio["value"] * self.max_position_pct: return False, f"Position too large: {position_value:.2f}" # Check drawdown current_drawdown = ( portfolio["peak_value"] - portfolio["value"] ) / portfolio["peak_value"] if current_drawdown > self.max_drawdown_pct: return False, f"Max drawdown exceeded: {current_drawdown:.2%}" # Check daily loss limit daily_pnl = portfolio.get("daily_pnl", 0) if daily_pnl < -portfolio["value"] * self.daily_loss_limit: return False, f"Daily loss limit exceeded: {daily_pnl:.2f}" return True, "OK" def calculate_kelly_size( self, win_prob: float, win_amount: float, loss_amount: float ) -> float: """Calculate Kelly criterion position size.""" if loss_amount == 0: return 0 b = win_amount / loss_amount p = win_prob q = 1 - p kelly = (b * p - q) / b # Use half-Kelly for safety return max(0, kelly * 0.5)```